金融资产配置与违约风险:蓄水池效应,还是逐利效应？

本文以2007—2016年中国A股上市公司为研究对象,检验了企业金融资产配置对违约风险的影响。实证研究发现:金融资产持有量越多,企业的违约风险越低,金融资产配置的“蓄水池效应”显著;在货币政策宽松时期,金融资产配置导致的代理冲突显现,宽松的货币政策会抑制金融资产投资对违约风险的降低作用。政府规制也会有一定的公司治理作用,将产业政策纳入讨论发现:对于产业政策支持的行业来说,企业金融资产配置能够降低违约风险,但是宽松的货币政策会刺激管理层的短视投资行为,抑制政府规制的公司治理作用。进一步地,本文提出会计稳健性的提升是企业金融资产配置降低违约风险的重要路径。本文的研究结论丰富了企业金融资产配置动机和违约风险影响因素的讨论,能够为政府部门防范经济运行中的内在风险提供有益借鉴。     

Parking futures: Preparing European cities for the advent of automated vehicles

The introduction of automated vehicles (AVs) is a virtual certainty. Much less certain is the timing of their introduction and how rapid the transition to full automation will be. Various governments are already working to facilitate this shift by, for example, amending and elaborating regulations to support the introduction of AVs, or supporting tests in different urban environments. Meanwhile, urban and regional planners and decision-makers are still grappling with the uncertainties and differing opinions about the possible impacts of AVs on land-use changes and location choices, particularly in relation to the space available for vehicles, both moving (i.e. roadspace) and stationary (i.e. parking space). This paper uses a backcasting approach to identify critical policy decisions and measures to be taken before the implementation of AVs, so as to achieve a more desirable, attractive and high-quality city. These policy measures primarily relate to the reuse and reallocation of parking and roadspace. Two strategic decisions are found to be essential to meet the major goals of sustainable and liveable cities: a clear commitment to a shared mobility and the delimitation of Core Attractive Mixed-use Spaces (CAMS). In order to deliver these desired urbanisation patterns, a set of three policy paths, involving eight policy packages, is proposed for the next 20–30 years. This article provides urban and regional decision-makers with examples of interventions that can be implemented beyond and during the implementation of AVs.     

经济政策不确定性与企业员工配置——来自沪深上市公司的经验证据

企业员工配置是企业内部管理的重要一环,经济政策不确定性是否会影响企业员工配置?本文以员工数量衡量企业员工配置,利用2010-2018年沪深A股上市企业数据和经济政策不确定性指数建立面板数据模型,考察经济政策不确定性对企业员工配置的影响,实证研究发现:经济政策不确定性会显著增加企业员工配置,且该影响经更换变量、调整样本容量以及内生性处理后依旧显著,该反应在还债能力较弱、盈利能力较差、股权制衡度较高、地区经济发展水平较低的企业中更为明显。文章的研究结论对于企业管理和宏观经济管控有一定的参考价值。     

非互惠的零关税待遇是否促进了受惠国的出口多样化——基于中美对非洲贸易政策的比较研究

非互惠的优惠贸易待遇是世界贸易组织和国际社会支持发展中国家尤其是最不发达国家发展的重要工具。为了评估该政策的效果,本文以中美对非洲实施的零关税待遇为例,采用2001—2017年HS8位贸易数据从整体、行业和区域层面评估了两种政策对受惠国出口多样化产生的影响。结果显示,美国零关税待遇分为AGOA-GSP和AGOA-服装两个条款,中国零关税待遇(FOCAC)在遵循WTO规则、受惠商品范围、受惠国家标准、原产地标准及政策有效期方面均优于AGOA-GSP,但在原产地标准灵活度和政策优惠力度方面低于AGOA-服装。这些特征导致三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响产生显著的差异。整体上,FOCAC和AGOA-服装对受惠国出口多样化均产生了显著的积极影响,而AGOA-GSP的影响不显著;行业层面,FOCAC对受惠国制造业、矿业和农业的出口多样化均产生了显著的促进作用,而AGOA的两个条款对受惠国三个细分行业出口多样化的影响均不显著;区域层面,三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响仅在部分区域发挥效果。     

经济政策不确定性、区域经济复杂度与企业创新行为

构建包含宏观经济政策不确定性指标、区域经济复杂度和上市公司特征变量“宏观-区域-企业”的实证面板数据，在理论分析经济政策不确定性对企业创新行为作用机理的基础上，以区域经济复杂度为视角，对经济政策不确定性与企业创新行为作用机制进行再检验。研究发现：经济政策不确定性对企业创新存在正向激励综合效应，同时，区域经济复杂度不仅能够促进企业创新行为，而且能够强化经济政策不确定性对企业创新行为的影响即抑制负向作用而强化正向作用。考虑内生性，通过替换核心变量检验稳健性以保证研究结论可靠，并且，研究企业特征发现，高科技企业和非高科技企业存在差异。     

Innovation and public procurement: Terminology,concepts, and applications

The growing awareness of public procurement as an innovation policy tool has recently sparked the interest of both policy makers and researchers. While an increasing number of studies is being published every year, an overview of the field is missing. Researchers, practitioners, and policy makers are often using ambiguous wording and have not yet reached consensus on the terminology and concepts involved. This state of affairs leads to research fragmentation and lack of knowledge convergence. For the purpose of contributing to knowledge synthesis and consolidation, this article provides a structured review of the literature on innovation in public procurement. From categorizing publications based on innovation drivers, concepts, and research approaches, the emerging structure of the field is described and synthesized into a framework of innovation in public procurement. The proposed framework differentiates between literature streams on (1) innovations in the public procurement process, (2) innovation of public services by means of procurement, and (3) the use of public procurement as a tool for demand-side innovation policy-making. For each of these streams of literature, different focus areas as well as research gaps and opportunities for future research are identified. Based on analysis of existing research, the proposed framework provides an overview of state-of-the-art knowledge, a unified terminology, and a holistic understanding of innovation in public procurement. The framework is both a point of departure for future research and a source of knowledge for practitioners.     

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES INTERACTION IN MONETARY UNIONS

In this paper, the literature on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union is surveyed. By adopting the concept of symbiosis as a starting point, the paper highlights the importance of uncertainty, policy makers' preferences and targets. Then, the role of commitment to policy rules and coordination is addressed. The analysis also focuses on the importance of the data considered for the generation of the policy mix. As a final step, the paper discusses the main results in the literature on public debt management in a monetary union. All the reported theoretical results are then adopted to retrieve policy and institutional implications for the European Monetary Union.     

构建适应中国特色应急管理需求的财政治理体系

“坚持总体国家安全观”是党的十九大报告关于国家发展战略的基本要求。以习近平同志为核心的党中央对应急管理工作高度重视,积极改革应急管理机构设置,加快构建“全灾种、全方位、全过程”的国家综合应急管理体制。同时,财政作为国家治理的基础和重要支柱,财政治理现代化是应急管理体制现代化的先决条件之一。目前我国应急管理的理论研究较少嵌入财政治理机制的影响。本文梳理了国内外应急管理的相关治理理论,结合我国应急管理体制改革的现实需求,分析了当前我国应急管理中财政治理的现状,构建了我国应急管理中财政治理的政策体系模型,并提出了相应财税政策建议。     

Investigating menu kilojoule labelling policy adoption from a political science perspective

Implementation of internationally recommended policy options for obesity prevention has generally been slow and inadequate globally, and, as such, it is important to understand barriers and enablers to policy action in the area. This study aimed to apply political science theories to understand influences on the adoption of Menu Kilojoule Labelling Legislation in Victoria, Australia over the period 2009–2017. Data collection included 13 in-depth semi-structured interviews with participants of the policy development and decision-making processes, analysis of 68 policy documents, and field note observations. Data were analysed using established political science theories: the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) and the Multiple Streams Theory (MST). There were numerous and interrelating factors that influenced the Menu Kilojoule Labelling Legislative policy processes. Barriers to policy reform included electoral turnover, a dominance of neoliberal ideology, and policy maker concerns regarding potential food industry backlash. Key enablers to eventual policy change included the accumulation of evidence on policy effectiveness and feasibility of implementation, increased recognition of the importance of tackling the issue, as well as reductions in political risks achieved, in part, through relatively long consultation and negotiation processes. Findings highlight several tactics that can be used to secure similar policy change in future, including generation, dissemination and translation of implementation evidence, effective mobilisation of supporters, and negotiation and consultation processes that can reduce the degree of opposition to proposed policies.     

The long overhang of bad decisions in agro-industrial development: Sugar and tomato paste in Ghana

In theory, learning from past mistakes should result in adapted and improved development policy. However policy learning can be difficult to achieve, and the link between learning and policy change is neither direct nor immediate. In this study we look at learning in agro-industrial policy in Ghana, by tracing the interest in sugar production and tomato processing over six decades. Specifically we ask why four failed factories established in the early 1960s have continued to play central roles in both policy and public discourse. Using policy documents, academic material, and the popular press, we show that Ghana’s policy focus on sugar production and tomato processing has endured, despite the fact that the factories were misconceived, poorly sited, ill-equipped and poorly managed. Indeed, the political ideas that underpinned the establishment of these factories in the early days of independence can be seen in the current One District, One Factory policy. We suggest that it is their symbolic and political value, not their economic value, which keeps the discussion around these factories alive. Even when shut down, they are a physical manifestation of historic commitments by the state, and as such they guarantee the attention of politicians, and hold out hope of a next re-launch. Unfortunately as long as the factories continue to be incorporated into each new generation of agro-industrial policy, it is difficult for any alternatives to gain traction. This analysis highlights the very long overhang of bad decisions, particularly when they are associated with physical infrastructure. Learning from past mistakes will only happen if the short-term political cost of turning policy learning into policy action can be overcome.